The Prediction Markets

Florida Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$398K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Donalds, 1+ pts 65%

Next is Donalds, 2+ pts at 60%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Donalds, 1+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 1+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 2+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 2+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 3+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 3+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 4+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 4+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 5+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 5+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 1+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 1+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 0-3%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 0-3%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 3-6%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 3-6%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 6+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 6+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly 0-3%
21.4%
Polymarket 21.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 0-3%
Last price
21.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.6¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$442 (4.42x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 30 more outcomes
Jolly, 2+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 2+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 2-4%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 2-4%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 7+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 7+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
David Jolly, 0-2%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Jolly, 0-2%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 8+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 8+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 4-6%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 4-6%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 0-2%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 0-2%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 9+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 9+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 3+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 3+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
David Jolly, 2-4%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Jolly, 2-4%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 5+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 5+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 6-8%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 6-8%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
David Jolly, ≥4%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Jolly, ≥4%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 4+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 4+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 6-9%
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 6-9%
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 12+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 12+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 10-12%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 10-12%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 9-12%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 9-12%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 15+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 15+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 8-10%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 8-10%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 6+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 6+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly 3-6%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 3-6%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 12-15%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 12-15%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron Donalds, ≥16%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, ≥16%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 12-14%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 12-14%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$990
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 14-16%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 14-16%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly 6%+
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 6%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 15-18%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 15-18%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 18+ pts
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 18+ pts
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 18%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 18%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donalds, 1+ pts
  • Donalds, 2+ pts
  • Donalds, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Donalds, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor margin of victory". Donalds, 1+ pts leads at 65%. Next is Donalds, 2+ pts at 60%. $398K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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