The Prediction Markets

How low will BTC get in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$12.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

80,000 81.5%

Next is 82,500 at 62.5%. The venues differ most on 72,500 (Polymarket 6.2%, Kalshi 8%), a 1.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 34 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
80,000
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$192K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,500
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,500
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
77,500
38.1%
Polymarket 38.5%live, 1 h agoKalshi 37%live, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
77,500
Price
38.5%
As of
Live feed, 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$644K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $77,500.00
Price
37%
As of
Live feed, 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 38¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.

85,000
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$422K
Trade this on Polymarket
75,000
17.4%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$437K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75,000.00
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

87,500
10%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
87,500
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$889K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $87,500.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$388K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

72,500
6.6%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,500
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72,500.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.2¢.

90,000
4.4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$578K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90,000.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$473K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 3.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

70,000
3.2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$292K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70,000.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

92,500
2.3%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,500
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$536K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $92,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$385K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Show 10 more outcomes
67,500
2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
67,500
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$313K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67,500.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

95,000
2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$408K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $95,000.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$157K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.6¢.

97,500
1.5%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
97,500
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$300K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$147K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.

65,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$595K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.1¢.

62,500
1%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,500
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$627K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

100,000
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$429K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100,000.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

102,500
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
102,500
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$346K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

60,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$572K
Trade this on Polymarket
105,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
105,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$662K
Trade this on Polymarket
150,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
150,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$634K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: 62,500 asks 0.7¢ on Polymarket and bids 1¢ on Kalshi (30 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 80,000
  • 82,500
  • 77,500

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 80,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will BTC get in October?". 80,000 leads at 81.5%. Next is 82,500 at 62.5%. $12.4M has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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