Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Marine Le Pen 47.0%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Apr 19, 2027 (6mo)Updated 1d ago
Next French Presidential Election
Live prediction market odds for "Next French Presidential Election". Marine Le Pen is leading at 47.0%. The next most likely outcome is douard Philippe at 18.0%. Total volume is $147.0M across 44 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 19, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Marine Le Pen
47.0%
Total Vol
$147.0M
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
2 comparable
Best Spread
375 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Marine Le Pen
$132K volume
47.0%
375 bps
stale quote
douard Philippe
$37K volume
18.0%
50 bps
stale quote
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$1.9M volume
12.5%
150 bps
stale quote
David Lisnard
$4.1M volume
12.4%
45 bps
stale quote
François Hollande
$41K volume
6.0%
255 bps
stale quote
Gabriel Attal
$2.7M volume
3.0%
75 bps
stale quote
Jordan Bardella
$89K volume
1.5%
65 bps
stale quote
Bruno Retailleau
$2.6M volume
1.4%
5 bps
stale quote
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Next French Presidential Election". Marine Le Pen is leading at 47.0%. The next most likely outcome is douard Philippe at 18.0%. Total volume is $147.0M across 44 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 19, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Apr 19, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Polymarket
Marine Le Pen
43.3%
douard Philippe
17.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12.5%
David Lisnard
12.4%
Kalshi
Marine Le Pen
47.0%
douard Philippe
18.0%
David Lisnard
12.0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
11.0%
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