The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$181K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Cooper, 1+ pts 95%

Next is Cooper, 3+ pts at 91.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cooper, 1+ pts
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 1+ pts
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 3+ pts
91.3%
Kalshi 91.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 3+ pts
Last price
91.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
91.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 5+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 90.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 5+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
90.9¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 7+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 7+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 9+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 9+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 11+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 11+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 13+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 13+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 12-15%
27.4%
Polymarket 27.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 12-15%
Last price
27.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
26.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 15+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 15+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 9-12%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 9-12%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Cooper 18%+
22.7%
Polymarket 22.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 18%+
Last price
22.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 17+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 17+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 6-9%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 6-9%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 15-18%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 15-18%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 3-6%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 3-6%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley, 3+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 3+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Whatley, 1+ pts
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 1+ pts
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 0-3%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 0-3%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 3-6%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 3-6%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 0-3%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 0-3%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 6%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 6%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cooper, 1+ pts
  • Cooper, 3+ pts
  • Cooper, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cooper, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Senate margin of victory". Cooper, 1+ pts leads at 95%. Next is Cooper, 3+ pts at 91.3%. $181K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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