Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2029 68.0%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (2mo)Updated 20h ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Live prediction market odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Before Jan 1, 2029 is leading at 68.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2028 at 68.0%. Total volume is $37.3M across 11 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2029
68.0%
Total Vol
$37.3M
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
0 comparable
Best Spread
0 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jan 1, 2029
$40K volume
68.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2028
$33K volume
68.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2028
$61K volume
55.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2027
$1.6M volume
46.0%
—
Before Apr 1, 2027
$823K volume
32.0%
—
Before Jul 15, 2026
$235K volume
23.0%
—
Yes
$14.3M volume
18.5%
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
$3.1M volume
13.0%
—
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Before Jan 1, 2029 is leading at 68.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2028 at 68.0%. Total volume is $37.3M across 11 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi, Polymarket. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2029
68.0%
Before Jul 1, 2028
68.0%
Before Jan 1, 2028
55.0%
Before Jul 1, 2027
46.0%
Polymarket
Yes
18.5%
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