Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Kevin Warsh 99.4%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Oct 31, 2026 (22d)Updated 160d ago
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?". Kevin Warsh is leading at 99.4%. The next most likely outcome is Judy Shelton at 0.4%. Total volume is $46.9M across 9 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Oct 31, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Kevin Warsh
99.4%
Total Vol
$46.9M
Across 1 venues
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Kevin Warsh
$12.1M volume
99.4%
—
Judy Shelton
$17.1M volume
0.4%
—
Michelle Bowman
$3.0M volume
0.1%
—
Christopher Waller
$2.0M volume
0.1%
—
Stephen Miran
$1.9M volume
0.1%
—
Jerome Powell
$2.3M volume
0.1%
—
Rick Reider
$2.0M volume
0.1%
—
Scott Bessent
$4.6M volume
0.1%
—
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?". Kevin Warsh is leading at 99.4%. The next most likely outcome is Judy Shelton at 0.4%. Total volume is $46.9M across 9 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by Oct 31, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Oct 31, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
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