New York Governor
Safe D
Kalshi
- Kathy Hochul95%
- Bruce Blakeman5%
Polymarket
- Kathy Hochul96%
- Bruce Blakeman4%
Venue gap 0.7 ptsCompare odds →
2026 midterms · New York
New York 2026 Election Odds
Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds for New York's 2026 races — governor and 26 House districts. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
New York House races
Every New York district with a market on either venue.
| District | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Gap | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | Likely R | Nick LaLota86% | Nick LaLota85% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| NY-02 | Likely R | Andrew Garbarino80% | Andrew Garbarino79% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-03 | Safe D | Tom Suozzi92% | Tom Suozzi90% | 1.7 pts | Odds → |
| NY-04 | Safe D | Laura Gillen93% | Laura Gillen92% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-05 | Safe D | Gregory Meeks97% | Gregory Meeks98% | 1.2 pts | Odds → |
| NY-06 | Safe D | Grace Meng97% | Grace Meng98% | 1.7 pts | Odds → |
| NY-07 | Safe D | Not listed | Claire Valdez97% | — | Odds → |
| NY-08 | Safe D | Hakeem Jeffries97% | Hakeem Jeffries96% | 0.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-09 | Likely D | Yvette Clarke97% | Yvette Clarke71% | 25.1 pts | Odds → |
| NY-10 | Safe D | Brad Lander99% | Brad Lander98% | 1.7 pts | Odds → |
| NY-11 | Safe R | Nicole Malliotakis92% | Nicole Malliotakis93% | 1.1 pts | Odds → |
| NY-12 | Safe D | Micah Lasher98% | Micah Lasher97% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-13 | Safe D | Darializa Avila Chevalier98% | Darializa Avila Chevalier97% | 1.6 pts | Odds → |
| NY-14 | Safe D | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez99% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez99% | 0.3 pts | Odds → |
| NY-15 | Safe D | Ritchie Torres97% | Ritchie Torres98% | 1.3 pts | Odds → |
| NY-16 | Safe D | Not listed | George Latimer97% | — | Odds → |
| NY-17 | Lean D | Cait Conley62% | Cait Conley62% | 0.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-18 | Safe D | Pat Ryan97% | Pat Ryan96% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-19 | Safe D | Josh Riley97% | Josh Riley96% | 0.4 pts | Odds → |
| NY-20 | Safe D | Paul Tonko98% | Paul Tonko97% | 0.7 pts | Odds → |
| NY-21 | Lean R | Anthony Constantino69% | Anthony Constantino66% | 3.0 pts | Odds → |
| NY-22 | Safe D | John Mannion96% | John Mannion97% | 1.1 pts | Odds → |
| NY-23 | Safe R | Nick Langworthy95% | Nick Langworthy96% | 1.4 pts | Odds → |
| NY-24 | Safe R | Claudia Tenney96% | Claudia Tenney96% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| NY-25 | Safe D | Joseph Morelle98% | Joseph Morelle97% | 1.1 pts | Odds → |
| NY-26 | Safe D | Not listed | Tim Kennedy97% | — | Odds → |
New York midterms: common questions
- Who will win the New York governor race in 2026?
- Kathy Hochul (Democrat) is favoured to win the New York governor race, at 95% on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket.
- Which New York House races are competitive in 2026?
- Prediction markets rate NY-17, NY-21 as toss-up or lean races.