The Prediction Markets

# of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary parliamentary election?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$615K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
70
42.4%
Polymarket 40.5%(42.5% fair)polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Last price
40.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
70-84
19.9%
Polymarket 19%(19.9% fair)polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-84
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
19.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
100-114
17.3%
Polymarket 16.5%(17.3% fair)polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-114
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
85-99
12.6%
Polymarket 12%(12.6% fair)polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
85-99
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
12.6%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
115-129
4.7%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
115-129
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$307K
Trade this on Polymarket
130+
3.1%
Polymarket 3%polled, 4711 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
130+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$203K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 70
  • 70-84
  • 100-114

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "# of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary parliamentary election?". 70 last traded at 42.4%. Next is 70-84 at 19.9%. $615K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets