The Prediction Markets

# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

Closed
Apr 19, 2026
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
95+
28.2%
Polymarket 29.5%(28.2% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
95+
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
90-94
23.9%
Polymarket 25%(23.9% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
90-94
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
23.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
85-89
19.1%
Polymarket 20%(19.1% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
85-89
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
19.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
75-79
11.7%
Polymarket 12.3%(11.7% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
75-79
Last price
12.3%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$671
Trade this on Polymarket
80-84
9.1%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-84
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
75
8%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
75
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 95+
  • 90-94
  • 85-89

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?". 95+ last traded at 28.2%. Next is 90-94 at 23.9%. $32K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 19, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Progressive Bulgaria (PB) in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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