The Prediction Markets

# of seats won by TISZA in Hungary parliamentary election?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
130+
31.1%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
130+
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Polymarket
120-129
20.2%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-129
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
100–109
11.8%
Polymarket 12%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
100–109
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
110–119
11.4%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
110–119
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
90–99
8.9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
90–99
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
80–89
7.5%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
80–89
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$407K
Trade this on Polymarket
70–79
5.9%
Polymarket 6%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
70–79
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$231K
Trade this on Polymarket
70
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4712 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$636K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 130+
  • 120-129
  • 100–109

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "# of seats won by TISZA in Hungary parliamentary election?". 130+ last traded at 31.1%. Next is 120-129 at 20.2%. $1.5M has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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