The Prediction Markets

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4.81% or above 99%

Next is 4.83% or above at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
4.81% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.81% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.83% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.83% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.85% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s ago
Kalshi
Contract
4.85% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.87% or above
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.87% or above
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
4.89% or above
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.89% or above
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
4.91% or above
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.91% or above
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
4.93% or above
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.93% or above
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
4.95% or above
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.95% or above
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
4.97% or above
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.97% or above
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
4.99% or above
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.99% or above
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
5.01% or above
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.01% or above
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
5.03% or above
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.03% or above
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
5.05% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.05% or above
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
5.07% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.07% or above
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
5.09% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.09% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.81% or above
  • 4.83% or above
  • 4.85% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?". 4.81% or above leads at 99%. Next is 4.83% or above at 99%. $10K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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