The Prediction Markets

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

115-120m 28.1%

Next is 110-115m at 17.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

115-120m 28.1%110-115m 17.4%130m+ 14.9%120-125m 12.6%105-110m 9.6%6 others 17.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
115-120m
28.1%
Polymarket 29%(28.1% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
115-120m
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
28.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
110-115m
17.4%
Polymarket 18%(17.4% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
110-115m
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
130m+
14.9%
Polymarket 15.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
130m+
Last price
15.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
120-125m
12.6%
Polymarket 13%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-125m
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
105-110m
9.6%
Polymarket 10%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
105-110m
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
125-130m
7.3%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
125-130m
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
100-105m
6.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-105m
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
90-95m
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
90-95m
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
95-100m
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
95-100m
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Polymarket
85m
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
85m
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Polymarket
85-90m
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
85-90m
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: history.house.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 115-120m
  • 110-115m
  • 130m+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Midterms: House Turnout". 115-120m leads at 28.1%. Next is 110-115m at 17.4%. $38K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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