The Prediction Markets

2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$267K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Nithya Raman, ≥2% 99%

Next is Nithya Raman, ≥4% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 8-10%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 8-10%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chiang Wan-an 12%+
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chiang Wan-an 12%+
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Chiang Wan-an 4-8%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chiang Wan-an 4-8%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Puma Shen 8%+
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Puma Shen 8%+
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Polymarket
Chiang Wan-an <4%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chiang Wan-an <4%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Chiang Wan-an 8-12%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chiang Wan-an 8-12%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Puma Shen <4%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Puma Shen <4%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Puma Shen 4-8%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Puma Shen 4-8%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, 10-12%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 10-12%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥18%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥18%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 0-2%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 0-2%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 2-4%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 2-4%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 4-6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 4-6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 6-8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 6-8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 12-14%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 12-14%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 14-16%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 14-16%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 16-18%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, 16-18%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nithya Raman, ≥2%
  • Nithya Raman, ≥4%
  • Nithya Raman, ≥6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Nithya Raman, ≥2% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory". Nithya Raman, ≥2% leads at 99%. Next is Nithya Raman, ≥4% at 99%. $267K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

The 2026 Taipei mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 28, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Taipei. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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