The Prediction Markets

2027 Mississippi Governor Election Winner

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
8 h ago
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What the markets expect

Republican Party 61.1%

Next is Democratic Party at 38.9%. The venues differ most on Republican Party (Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 65%), a 13-point gap.

Republican Party 61.1%Democratic Party 38.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican Party
61.1%
Polymarket 52.5%(53% fair)polled, 8 h agoKalshi 65%(63.7% fair)polled, 8 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Party
Last price
52.5%
Fair, margin removed
53%
As of
Polled 8 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republican
Last price
65%
Fair, margin removed
63.7%
As of
Polled 8 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 8 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Democratic Party
38.9%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 8 h agoKalshi 37%(36.3% fair)polled, 8 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Party
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 8 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
36.3%
As of
Polled 8 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 8 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 8 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on the party of the person inaugurated as governor; Polymarket resolves on the winner of the election (media call/certified results). Differ only if the winner is not inaugurated (death, disqualification, etc.).
  • Kalshi has no stated rule for independents or party affiliation (nominee vs ballot-listed); Polymarket defines party representation, including independents and multi-party candidates. A candidate with a dual affiliation or an independent could be treated differently.
  • Resolution sources differ: Kalshi relies on inauguration (source unspecified), Polymarket on media consensus calls with certified results as fallback. Polymarket can resolve early on calls well before inauguration.
  • Listed end dates differ (Kalshi 2028-11-01, Polymarket 2027-11-03), but both settle on the 2027 election outcome. Kalshi's later date is an expiry that allows for the January 2028 inauguration.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 3, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Mississippi Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on the party of the person inaugurated as governor; Polymarket resolves on the winner of the election (media call/certified results). Differ only if the winner is not inaugurated (death, disqualification, etc.).
  • Kalshi has no stated rule for independents or party affiliation (nominee vs ballot-listed); Polymarket defines party representation, including independents and multi-party candidates. A candidate with a dual affiliation or an independent could be treated differently.
  • Resolution sources differ: Kalshi relies on inauguration (source unspecified), Polymarket on media consensus calls with certified results as fallback. Polymarket can resolve early on calls well before inauguration.
  • Listed end dates differ (Kalshi 2028-11-01, Polymarket 2027-11-03), but both settle on the 2027 election outcome. Kalshi's later date is an expiry that allows for the January 2028 inauguration.
  • Trading closes Nov 3, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican Party
  • Democratic Party

Live prices for Republican Party

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 Mississippi Governor Election Winner". Republican Party leads at 61.1%. Next is Democratic Party at 38.9%. $45K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, that wins the 2027 election for Governor of Mississippi. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed affiliation with, that party. A candidate representing either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. Candidates already listed as independents will not be considered to represent any party regardless of any party affiliation they may have, or if they become the nominee of a listed party. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction. Democratic and Republican party nominees may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named Democratic or Republican nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party, except where the replacement nominee is an already-listed independent candidate. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN, and ABC; however, the certified statewide results of the specified election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN, and ABC have all concurrently called the election for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make gubernatorial race calls for the 2027 Mississippi gubernatorial election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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