Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 8%
Next is Yulia Navalnaya at 7.2%. The venues differ most on Jimmy Lai (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 3.3%), a 7.2-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms8%10.6%7.7% fair10.2¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 4 min ago8.3%10.8% fair8¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago8.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms8%Polymarket 10.6%(7.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 8.3%(10.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
8%
10.6%
7.7% fair
10.2¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
8.3%
10.8% fair
8¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
8.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
8%
Polymarket 10.6%(7.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 8.3%(10.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
- Last price
- 10.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $27K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
- Last price
- 8.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.8%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $24
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 8.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.2¢ nets 190 bps before fees.
Yulia Navalnaya7.2%11%8% fair10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 4 min ago5%6.5% fair4.4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Yulia Navalnaya7.2%Polymarket 11%(8% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 5%(6.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yulia Navalnaya
7.2%
11%
8% fair
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
5%
6.5% fair
4.4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yulia Navalnaya
7.2%
Polymarket 11%(8% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 5%(6.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yulia Navalnaya
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $23K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yulia Navalnaya
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $296
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 500 bps before fees.
Committee to Protect Journalists6.4%10%7.3% fair9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 4 min ago4.3%5.6% fair4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago4.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)Committee to Protect Journalists6.4%Polymarket 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 4.3%(5.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Committee to Protect Journalists
6.4%
10%
7.3% fair
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
4.3%
5.6% fair
4.2¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
4.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Committee to Protect Journalists
6.4%
Polymarket 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 4.3%(5.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Committee to Protect Journalists
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $10K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Committee to Protect Journalists
- Last price
- 4.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $48
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 470 bps before fees.
Jimmy Lai6.4%10.5%7.6% fair10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 4 min ago3.3%4.3% fair3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago3.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)Jimmy Lai6.4%Polymarket 10.5%(7.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Jimmy Lai
6.4%
10.5%
7.6% fair
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
3.3%
4.3% fair
3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
3.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Jimmy Lai
6.4%
Polymarket 10.5%(7.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jimmy Lai
- Last price
- 10.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jimmy Lai
- Last price
- 3.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $66
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 3.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 670 bps before fees.
Pope Leo XIV6.1%8.3%6% fair7.7¢ bid, 8.8¢ askpolled, 4 min ago6.3%8.2% fair2.4¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago6.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Pope Leo XIV6.1%Polymarket 8.3%(6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 6.3%(8.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Pope Leo XIV
6.1%
8.3%
6% fair
7.7¢ bid, 8.8¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
6.3%
8.2% fair
2.4¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
6.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Pope Leo XIV
6.1%
Polymarket 8.3%(6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 6.3%(8.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pope Leo XIV
- Last price
- 8.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,136 (11.4x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pope Leo XIV
- Last price
- 6.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $688
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 6.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7.7¢ nets 140 bps before fees.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya6.1%10%7.3% fair9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 4 min ago3.2%4.2% fair1.2¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago3.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya6.1%Polymarket 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.2%(4.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
6.1%
10%
7.3% fair
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
3.2%
4.2% fair
1.2¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
3.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
6.1%
Polymarket 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.2%(4.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
- Last price
- 3.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $63
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 3.2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 580 bps before fees.
Melania Trump5.7%5.7%4.1% fair5.6¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 4 min ago6%7.8% fair1.3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)Melania Trump5.7%Polymarket 5.7%(4.1% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 6%(7.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Melania Trump
5.7%
5.7%
4.1% fair
5.6¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
6%
7.8% fair
1.3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Melania Trump
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%(4.1% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 6%(7.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Melania Trump
- Last price
- 5.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Melania Trump
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%7.9%5.7% fair7.4¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 4 min ago3.3%4.3% fair3.1¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago3.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%Polymarket 7.9%(5.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5%
7.9%
5.7% fair
7.4¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
3.3%
4.3% fair
3.1¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
3.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5%
Polymarket 7.9%(5.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 3.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Last price
- 7.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $27K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Last price
- 3.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $281
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 3.3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7.4¢ nets 410 bps before fees.
Donald Trump4.8%8.5%6.2% fair8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.5%1.4¢ bid, 4.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago4.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Donald Trump4.8%Polymarket 8.5%(6.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Donald Trump
4.8%
8.5%
6.2% fair
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.5%
1.4¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
4.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Donald Trump
4.8%
Polymarket 8.5%(6.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donald Trump
- Last price
- 8.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $61K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donald Trump
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 4.2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 380 bps before fees.
International Criminal Court4.8%6.3%4.6% fair6¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 4 min ago5%6.5% fair1.4¢ bid, 6.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago6.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)International Criminal Court4.8%Polymarket 6.3%(4.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 5%(6.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
International Criminal Court
4.8%
6.3%
4.6% fair
6¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
5%
6.5% fair
1.4¢ bid, 6.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
6.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
International Criminal Court
4.8%
Polymarket 6.3%(4.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 5%(6.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- International Criminal Court
- Last price
- 6.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $21K
Kalshi
- Contract
- International Criminal Court
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,613 (16.1x)
- Volume
- $244
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.2¢.
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
UNRWA4.8%8.6%6.2% fair8.2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.4%1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)UNRWA4.8%Polymarket 8.6%(6.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
UNRWA
4.8%
8.6%
6.2% fair
8.2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.4%
1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
UNRWA
4.8%
Polymarket 8.6%(6.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- UNRWA
- Last price
- 8.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $24K
Kalshi
- Contract
- UNRWA
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $122
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1.4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8.2¢ nets 680 bps before fees.
Julian Assange3.6%6.2%4.5% fair3.7¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.7%2.2% fair1.1¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)Julian Assange3.6%Polymarket 6.2%(4.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.7%(2.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Julian Assange
3.6%
6.2%
4.5% fair
3.7¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.7%
2.2% fair
1.1¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Julian Assange
3.6%
Polymarket 6.2%(4.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.7%(2.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julian Assange
- Last price
- 6.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Julian Assange
- Last price
- 1.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $905
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.6¢.
Elon Musk3%3%2.2% fair0.7¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, 4 min ago4.9%6.4% fair1.1¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)Elon Musk3%Polymarket 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 4.9%(6.4% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Elon Musk
3%
3%
2.2% fair
0.7¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
4.9%
6.4% fair
1.1¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Elon Musk
3%
Polymarket 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 4.9%(6.4% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elon Musk
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elon Musk
- Last price
- 4.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.4%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $288
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.3¢.
International Court of Justice2.8%4.4%3.2% fair4¢ bid, 4.7¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.9%2.5% fair1.8¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)International Court of Justice2.8%Polymarket 4.4%(3.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.9%(2.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
International Court of Justice
2.8%
4.4%
3.2% fair
4¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.9%
2.5% fair
1.8¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
International Court of Justice
2.8%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.9%(2.5% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- International Court of Justice
- Last price
- 4.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,128 (21.3x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kalshi
- Contract
- International Court of Justice
- Last price
- 1.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $1K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 210 bps before fees.
Doctors Without Borders2.5%3.2%2.3% fair2.4¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 min ago2.8%3.6% fair2.5¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 5 min ago2.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)Doctors Without Borders2.5%Polymarket 3.2%(2.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 2.8%(3.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Doctors Without Borders
2.5%
3.2%
2.3% fair
2.4¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
2.8%
3.6% fair
2.5¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
2.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Doctors Without Borders
2.5%
Polymarket 3.2%(2.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 2.8%(3.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Doctors Without Borders
- Last price
- 3.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $16K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Doctors Without Borders
- Last price
- 2.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $604
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.8¢.
Francesca Albanese2.1%Not listed1.7%2.2% fair1.7¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Francesca Albanese2.1%Kalshi 1.7%(2.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Francesca Albanese
2.1%
Not listed
1.7%
2.2% fair
1.7¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Francesca Albanese
2.1%
Kalshi 1.7%(2.2% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Francesca Albanese
- Last price
- 1.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $235
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine2%Not listed1.6%1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine2%Kalshi 1.6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
2%
Not listed
1.6%
1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
2%
Kalshi 1.6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $0
World Health Organization2%Not listed1.6%1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)World Health Organization2%Kalshi 1.6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
World Health Organization
2%
Not listed
1.6%
1.6¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
World Health Organization
2%
Kalshi 1.6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- World Health Organization
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $0
António Guterres1.8%3.4%2.4% fair1.7¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)António Guterres1.8%Polymarket 3.4%(2.4% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
António Guterres
1.8%
3.4%
2.4% fair
1.7¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
António Guterres
1.8%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.4% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- António Guterres
- Last price
- 3.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $19K
Kalshi
- Contract
- António Guterres
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1.2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.7¢ nets 50 bps before fees.
Save the Children1.8%Not listed1.5%1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 5 min ago2.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Save the Children1.8%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Save the Children
1.8%
Not listed
1.5%
1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
2.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Save the Children
1.8%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Save the Children
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $500
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)1.6%Not listed1.3%1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)Reporters Without Borders (RSF)1.6%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
1.6%
Not listed
1.3%
1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
1.6%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $0
Greta Thunberg1.5%2.3%1.7% fair1¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 4 min ago1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Greta Thunberg1.5%Polymarket 2.3%(1.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Greta Thunberg
1.5%
2.3%
1.7% fair
1¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Greta Thunberg
1.5%
Polymarket 2.3%(1.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Greta Thunberg
- Last price
- 2.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Greta Thunberg
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.
Parents Circle – Families Forum1.5%Not listed1.2%1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)Parents Circle – Families Forum1.5%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Parents Circle – Families Forum
1.5%
Not listed
1.2%
1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Parents Circle – Families Forum
1.5%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Parents Circle – Families Forum
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $500
Vanessa Nakate1.5%Not listed1.2%1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)Vanessa Nakate1.5%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Vanessa Nakate
1.5%
Not listed
1.2%
1.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Vanessa Nakate
1.5%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vanessa Nakate
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $500
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue1.4%Not listed1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
1.4%
Not listed
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
David Attenborough1.4%Not listed1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)David Attenborough1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
David Attenborough
1.4%
Not listed
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
David Attenborough
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Attenborough
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Imran Khan1.4%Not listed1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Imran Khan1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Imran Khan
1.4%
Not listed
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Imran Khan
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Imran Khan
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Minneapolis1.4%Not listed1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Minneapolis1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Minneapolis
1.4%
Not listed
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Minneapolis
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minneapolis
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani1.4%Not listed1.2%1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 5 min ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
1.4%
Not listed
1.2%
1.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: UNRWA asks 1.4¢ on Kalshi and bids 8.2¢ on Polymarket (680 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Apr 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nobel Prize organization
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Apr 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
- Yulia Navalnaya
- Committee to Protect Journalists
Live prices for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2027 Nobel Peace Prize winner". Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms leads at 8%. Next is Yulia Navalnaya at 7.2%. $277K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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