Top of book
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What the markets expect
Democratic Party 78.1%
Next is Republican Party at 21.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Democratic Party78.1%72.5%78.1% fair65¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 12 min ago80¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Democratic Party78.1%Polymarket 72.5%(78.1% fair)polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Democratic Party
78.1%
72.5%
78.1% fair
65¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 12 min ago
80¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Democratic Party
78.1%
Polymarket 72.5%(78.1% fair)polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democratic Party
- Last price
- 72.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 78.1%
- As of
- Polled 12 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $2K
Republican Party21.9%20.3%21.9% fair20¢ bid, 20.6¢ askpolled, 12 min ago20.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $485 (4.85x)Republican Party21.9%Polymarket 20.3%(21.9% fair)polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Republican Party
21.9%
20.3%
21.9% fair
20¢ bid, 20.6¢ ask
polled, 12 min ago
20.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Republican Party
21.9%
Polymarket 20.3%(21.9% fair)polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Party
- Last price
- 20.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 21.9%
- As of
- Polled 12 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $485 (4.85x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Democratic Party
- Republican Party
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential Election: Georgia Winner". Democratic Party leads at 78.1%. Next is Republican Party at 21.9%. $4K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2028.
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Georgia results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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