The Prediction Markets

2028 Presidential Election: Missouri Winner

Closes
Nov 8, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Republican Party 89.7%

Next is Democratic Party at 10.3%. The venues differ most on Republican Party (Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 91.4%), a 5.8-point gap.

Republican Party 89.7%Democratic Party 10.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican Party
89.7%
Polymarket 85.5%(86.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 91.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Party
Last price
85.5%
Fair, margin removed
86.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republican party
Last price
91.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91.7¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Democratic Party
10.3%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Party
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic party
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on most electoral votes in Missouri; Polymarket resolves on most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. Missouri awards all electors to the statewide winner, so they only differ in an extreme edge case such as a faithless elector.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029; Kalshi has no such fallback. The date is far past the election, so this is practically irrelevant.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated determination on a consensus of media projections, without naming sources. Polymarket resolves once AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race, otherwise on certified results. Timing could differ slightly, but the outcome should be the same.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome that Kalshi does not list, so the two are not linked.
  • Polymarket defines party by nominee and handles independents and replaced nominees. Kalshi does not specify this, which matters only in unusual scenarios.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Missouri Secretary of State, United States Congress, Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on most electoral votes in Missouri; Polymarket resolves on most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. Missouri awards all electors to the statewide winner, so they only differ in an extreme edge case such as a faithless elector.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029; Kalshi has no such fallback. The date is far past the election, so this is practically irrelevant.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated determination on a consensus of media projections, without naming sources. Polymarket resolves once AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race, otherwise on certified results. Timing could differ slightly, but the outcome should be the same.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome that Kalshi does not list, so the two are not linked.
  • Polymarket defines party by nominee and handles independents and replaced nominees. Kalshi does not specify this, which matters only in unusual scenarios.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican Party
  • Democratic Party

Live prices for Republican Party

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential Election: Missouri Winner". Republican Party leads at 89.7%. Next is Democratic Party at 10.3%. $8K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2028.

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Missouri in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Missouri results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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