The Prediction Markets

2030 Mexico Presidential election winner?

Closes
Jun 2, 2031, in 55 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Omar García Harfuch 12%

Next is Clara Brugada at 5.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Omar García Harfuch
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar García Harfuch
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Clara Brugada
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clara Brugada
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marcelo Ebrard
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcelo Ebrard
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricardo Salinas Pliego
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricardo Salinas Pliego
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Donaldo Colosio
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Donaldo Colosio
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Samuel García
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Samuel García
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gerardo Fernández Noroña
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gerardo Fernández Noroña
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mara Lezama
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mara Lezama
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricardo Anaya
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricardo Anaya
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alejandro Moreno
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro Moreno
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Andrés López Beltrán
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrés López Beltrán
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lilly Téllez
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lilly Téllez
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mauricio Kuri
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Kuri
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Instituto Nacional Electoral, Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Omar García Harfuch
  • Clara Brugada
  • Marcelo Ebrard

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2030 Mexico Presidential election winner?". Omar García Harfuch leads at 12%. Next is Clara Brugada at 5.5%. $1K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 2, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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