The Prediction Markets

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 21 hours
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4.61% or above 85%

Next is 4.63% or above at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
4.61% or above
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.61% or above
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
4.63% or above
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.63% or above
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
4.65% or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.65% or above
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
4.67% or above
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.67% or above
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
4.69% or above
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.69% or above
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
4.71% or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.71% or above
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Kalshi
4.87% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.87% or above
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
4.73% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.73% or above
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.79% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.79% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
4.89% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.89% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
4.81% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.81% or above
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.83% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.83% or above
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.77% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.77% or above
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
4.85% or above
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.85% or above
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi
4.75% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.61% or above
  • 4.63% or above
  • 4.65% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?". 4.61% or above leads at 85%. Next is 4.63% or above at 77%. $6K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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