The Prediction Markets

30-year mortgage rate this week

Closes
Oct 29, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$109K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 7.22% 78%

Next is 7.50% at 74.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 7.22%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.22%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$935
Trade this on Kalshi
7.50%
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.50%
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.23%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.23%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.26%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.26%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.24%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.24%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.25%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.25%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.28%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.28%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Kalshi
6.50%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.50%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.29%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.29%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.27%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.27%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
6.25%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.25%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.30%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.30%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.31%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.31%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.32%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.32%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.35%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.35%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi
6.00%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.00%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.33%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.33%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.34%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.34%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.36%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.36%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
5.90%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.90%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.37%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.37%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.38%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.38%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.39%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.39%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.50%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.50%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.40%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.40%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.41%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.41%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.70%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.70%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: freddiemac.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Freddie Mac

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 7.22%
  • 7.50%
  • Above 7.23%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 7.22% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "30-year mortgage rate this week". Above 7.22% leads at 78%. Next is 7.50% at 74.5%. $109K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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