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Best ask
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What the markets expect
4.76% or above 76%
Next is 4.78% or above at 68%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.76% or above76%76%76¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 51s ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)4.76% or above76%Kalshi 76%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
4.76% or above
76%
76%
76¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
4.76% or above
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.76% or above
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $750
4.78% or above68%68%68¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 51s ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)4.78% or above68%Kalshi 68%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
4.78% or above
68%
68%
68¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
4.78% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.78% or above
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $312
4.8% or above42%42%42¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 51s ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)4.8% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
4.8% or above
42%
42%
42¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
4.8% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.8% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $135
4.82% or above30%30%30¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 51s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)4.82% or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.82% or above
30%
30%
30¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.82% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.82% or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $509
4.84% or above15%15%15¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 51s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)4.84% or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
4.84% or above
15%
15%
15¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
4.84% or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.84% or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $200
4.9% or above11%11%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 51s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)4.9% or above11%Kalshi 11%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
4.9% or above
11%
11%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
4.9% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.9% or above
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $243
4.86% or above7%7%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 51s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)4.86% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.86% or above
7%
7%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.86% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.86% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $905
4.88% or above7%7%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 51s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)4.88% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
4.88% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
4.88% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.88% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $400
4.96% or above5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 51s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)4.96% or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
4.96% or above
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
4.96% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $100
4.92% or above4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 51s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)4.92% or above4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
4.92% or above
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
4.92% or above
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.92% or above
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
4.94% or above3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 51s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)4.94% or above3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
4.94% or above
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
4.94% or above
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.94% or above
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
5.02% or above2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 51s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)5.02% or above2%Kalshi 2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.02% or above
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5.02% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $100
4.98% or above1.5%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 51s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)4.98% or above1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
4.98% or above
1.5%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
4.98% or above
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
5.04% or above1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 51s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)5.04% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.04% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
5.04% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $105
5% or above1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 51s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)5% or above1%Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5% or above
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 51s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
5% or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.76% or above
- 4.78% or above
- 4.8% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?". 4.76% or above leads at 76%. Next is 4.78% or above at 68%. $4K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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