The Prediction Markets

Alabama Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.34M 88%

Next is Above 1.41M at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.34M
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.34M
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.41M
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.41M
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.48M
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.48M
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$891
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.56M
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.56M
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.63M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.63M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
1.5M-1.6M
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M-1.6M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.70M
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.70M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6M-1.7M
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $337 (3.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M-1.7M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29.7¢
Sell Yes
22.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$337 (3.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.4M-1.5M
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M-1.5M
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.77M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.77M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 1.84M
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.84M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.91M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.91M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.7M-1.8M
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.7M-1.8M
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.2¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$820 (8.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.8M+
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.8M+
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3M-1.4M
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3M-1.4M
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.2M-1.3M
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M-1.3M
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.2M
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alabama Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.34M
  • Above 1.41M
  • Above 1.48M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.34M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alabama Senate Election: Turnout". Above 1.34M leads at 88%. Next is Above 1.41M at 76%. $23K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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