The Prediction Markets

Alaska Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$228K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Mary Peltola, 3-6% 65%

Next is Peltola 0-3% at 61.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 0-3%
61.8%
Polymarket 61.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 75.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 0-3%
Last price
61.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
75.5¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 3-6%
25.6%
Polymarket 25.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 3-6%
Last price
25.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 0-3%
15.9%
Polymarket 15.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 0-3%
Last price
15.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 6+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 6+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 8+ pts
5.7%
Kalshi 5.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 8+ pts
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 20 more outcomes
Peltola 9-12%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 9-12%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts
4.8%
Kalshi 4.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 6-9%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 6-9%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peltola 12+%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peltola 12+%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sullivan 3-6%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 3-6%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola, 10+ pts
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola, 10+ pts
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sullivan 6-9%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 6-9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Sullivan 12+%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 12+%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$653
Trade this on Polymarket
Sullivan 9-12%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sullivan 9-12%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State of Alaska, Alaska Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mary Peltola, 3-6%
  • Peltola 0-3%
  • Mary Peltola, 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Mary Peltola, 3-6% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alaska Senate margin of victory". Mary Peltola, 3-6% leads at 65%. Next is Peltola 0-3% at 61.8%. $228K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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