The Prediction Markets

AOC announces a presidential run by...?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
58 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Oct 1, 2027 66%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 51.6%. The venues differ most on June 30, 2027 (Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 48%), a 9.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
51.6%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 48%polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

March 31, 2027
18.8%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 23¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Before Jan 1, 2027
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: March 31, 2027 asks 17¢ on Kalshi and bids 23¢ on Polymarket (600 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 7 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'before Apr 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'by March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET' — effectively the same cutoff, though Kalshi timezone for 'before' is not stated.
  • Kalshi 'before Jul 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET' — effectively the same cutoff.
  • Kalshi rules cite an unnamed 'Source Agency' and require announcement from the person or official campaign; Polymarket uses official statements primarily but allows a consensus of credible reporting, so sources could differ in rare cases.
  • Polymarket requires the announcement to be explicit and unambiguous and excludes sarcastic or conditional statements; Kalshi excludes exploratory committees and statements of interest. Ambiguous announcements could be treated differently.
  • Kalshi also lists Jan 1, 2027 and Oct 1, 2027 outcomes that Polymarket does not; these are unlinked.
  • Kalshi rule text is truncated in the outcome-level rules, so its full wording cannot be confirmed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'before Apr 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'by March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET' — effectively the same cutoff, though Kalshi timezone for 'before' is not stated.
  • Kalshi 'before Jul 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET' — effectively the same cutoff.
  • Kalshi rules cite an unnamed 'Source Agency' and require announcement from the person or official campaign; Polymarket uses official statements primarily but allows a consensus of credible reporting, so sources could differ in rare cases.
  • Polymarket requires the announcement to be explicit and unambiguous and excludes sarcastic or conditional statements; Kalshi excludes exploratory committees and statements of interest. Ambiguous announcements could be treated differently.
  • Kalshi also lists Jan 1, 2027 and Oct 1, 2027 outcomes that Polymarket does not; these are unlinked.
  • Kalshi rule text is truncated in the outcome-level rules, so its full wording cannot be confirmed.
  • Trading closes Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Oct 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AOC announces a presidential run by...?". Before Oct 1, 2027 leads at 66%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 51.6%. $15K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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