The Prediction Markets

AOC's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

10% 34.5%

Next is 20% at 25.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
10%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
10%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Polymarket
20%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
20%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Polymarket
25%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
25%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 10%
  • 20%
  • 25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AOC's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?". 10% leads at 34.5%. Next is 20% at 25.5%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or is equal to or below the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or above the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, a "↑" market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No", and a "↓" market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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