The Prediction Markets

AP calls the Alaska Senate race by...?

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, closed
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 d ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 4 97%

Next is Before Nov 26 at 96.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 4
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 4
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 26
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 26
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30
95.5%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 19
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 19
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi
November 22
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 22
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 14
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 14
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 18
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 18
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
November 15
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 15
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$592
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 11
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 11
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
November 8
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 8
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 6
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 67 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 6
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: apnews.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 4
  • Before Nov 26
  • November 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 4 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AP calls the Alaska Senate race by...?". Before Jan 4 leads at 97%. Next is Before Nov 26 at 96.5%. $10K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press (AP) calls the winner of the 2026 United States Senate general election in Alaska between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A call refers to the AP publicly declaring a winner of the race. A call for any candidate will qualify. Calls, projections, or declarations by any other news organization, or certification of results by the State of Alaska, will not qualify. A call made within the specified window will qualify even if it is later retracted. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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