The Prediction Markets

April Inflation US - Annual

Closed
May 12, 2026
Traded
$163K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.7%
34%
Polymarket 35.3%(34% fair)polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 35.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $282 (2.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%
Last price
35.3%
Fair, margin removed
34%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
35.5¢
Sell Yes
35.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$282 (2.82x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8%
26.4%
Polymarket 27.4%(26.4% fair)polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 28.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $355 (3.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
27.4%
Fair, margin removed
26.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
28.2¢
Sell Yes
26.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$355 (3.55x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6%
17.8%
Polymarket 18.5%(17.8% fair)polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6%
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
9.7%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
6%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.0%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.1%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4218 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.7%
  • 3.8%
  • 3.6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "April Inflation US - Annual". 3.7% last traded at 34%. Next is 3.8% at 26.4%. $163K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 12, 2026.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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