The Prediction Markets

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Closed
Apr 14, 2026
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 195 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.1–3.3%
66%
Polymarket 68%(66% fair)polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1–3.3%
Last price
68%
Fair, margin removed
66%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8–3.0%
29.6%
Polymarket 30.5%(29.6% fair)polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8–3.0%
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.6%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5–2.7%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–2.7%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.2–2.4%
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2–2.4%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4–3.6%
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4–3.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.1%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.1%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4701 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.1–3.3%
  • 2.8–3.0%
  • 2.5–2.7%

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March". 3.1–3.3% last traded at 66%. Next is 2.8–3.0% at 29.6%. $30K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 14, 2026.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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