The Prediction Markets

Argentina Monthly Inflation - May

Closed
Jun 11, 2026
Traded
$47K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 11, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2.2–2.4%
43.1%
Polymarket 56%(43% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2–2.4%
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
43%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.1%
19.2%
Polymarket 25%(19.2% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.1%
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
19.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5–2.7%
17.7%
Polymarket 23%(17.7% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–2.7%
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
17.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8–3.0%
4.6%
Polymarket 6%(4.6% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8–3.0%
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1–3.3%
4.6%
Polymarket 6%(4.6% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1–3.3%
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4–3.6%
4.2%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.2% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4–3.6%
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7–3.9%
4.2%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.2% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7–3.9%
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
4.0%+
2.4%
Polymarket 3.1%(2.4% fair)polled, 3820 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
3.1%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.2–2.4%
  • 2.1%
  • 2.5–2.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - May". 2.2–2.4% last traded at 43.1%. Next is 2.1% at 19.2%. $47K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 11, 2026.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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