Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 345K 71%
Next is Above 350K at 67%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 345K71%71%1¢ bid, — askpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 345K71%Kalshi 71%polled, 5 h ago
Above 345K
71%
71%
1¢ bid, — ask
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 345K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 345K
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- Volume
- $255
Above 350K67%67%2¢ bid, — askpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 350K67%Kalshi 67%polled, 5 h ago
Above 350K
67%
67%
2¢ bid, — ask
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 350K
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 350K
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- Volume
- $747
Above 360K67%67%6¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 5 h ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 360K67%Kalshi 67%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 360K
67%
67%
6¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 360K
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 360K
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $224
Above 340K57%57%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 5 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 340K57%Kalshi 57%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 340K
57%
57%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 340K
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 340K
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $148
Above 260K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 260K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 260K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 260K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 280K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 280K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 280K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 280K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 300K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 300K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 300K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 300K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 320K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 320K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 320K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 320K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 380K50%50%5¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 h ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 380K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 380K
50%
50%
5¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 380K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 380K
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $23
Above 410K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 410K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 410K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 410K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 420K50%50%No order bookpolled, 5 h agoNo askAbove 420K50%Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 420K
50%
50%
No order book
polled, 5 h ago
No ask
Above 420K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Above 400K23%23%— bid, 23¢ askpolled, 5 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Above 400K23%Kalshi 23%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 400K
23%
23%
— bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 400K
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 400K
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $4
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 345K
- Above 350K
- Above 360K
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Arizona 01 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 345K leads at 71%. Next is Above 350K at 67%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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