The Prediction Markets

Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

2.6M-2.75M 27%

Next is 2.45M-2.6M at 25.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

2.6M-2.75M 27%2.45M-2.6M 25.1%2.15M-2.3M 14.3%2.75M-2.9M 12.8%3.05M-3.2M 4.7%5 others 16.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2.6M-2.75M
27%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6M-2.75M
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.45M-2.6M
25.1%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.45M-2.6M
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.15M-2.3M
14.3%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $388 (3.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.15M-2.3M
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$388 (3.88x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Polymarket
2.75M-2.9M
12.8%
Polymarket 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75M-2.9M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.05M-3.2M
4.7%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.05M-3.2M
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9M-3.05M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9M-3.05M
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
2.3M-2.45M
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3M-2.45M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
2M
4%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2M+
2.8%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2M+
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Polymarket
2M-2.15M
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M-2.15M
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.6M-2.75M
  • 2.45M-2.6M
  • 2.15M-2.3M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona Governor Election: Turnout". 2.6M-2.75M leads at 27%. Next is 2.45M-2.6M at 25.1%. $15K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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