The Prediction Markets

Arizona Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Above 3.1M 89%

Next is Above 2M at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.1M
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1M
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2M
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2M
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
6¢
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.4M
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.4M
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
6¢
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.3M
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.3M
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.6M
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.6M
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.7M
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.7M
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.8M
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.8M
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6M-2.75M
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6M-2.75M
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.75M-2.9M
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75M-2.9M
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.9M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.9M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
2.3M-2.45M
21.4%
Polymarket 21.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3M-2.45M
Last price
21.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.3M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
2.45M-2.6M
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.45M-2.6M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9M-3.05M
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9M-3.05M
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2M+
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2M+
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.15M-2.3M
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.15M-2.3M
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2M
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.05M-3.2M
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.05M-3.2M
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2M-2.15M
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M-2.15M
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.1M
  • Above 2M
  • Above 2.4M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.1M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 3.1M leads at 89%. Next is Above 2M at 87%. $29K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets