The Prediction Markets

Arkansas 02 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 220K 50%

Next is Above 240K at 50%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 220K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arkansas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 220K
  • Above 240K
  • Above 280K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas 02 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 220K leads at 50%. Next is Above 240K at 50%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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