The Prediction Markets

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$427K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jay Feely
71.3%
Polymarket 77%(71.3% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jay Feely
Last price
77%
Fair, margin removed
71.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Trobough
12.6%
Polymarket 13.7%(12.6% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 27.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $368 (3.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Trobough
Last price
13.7%
Fair, margin removed
12.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
27.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$368 (3.68x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joseph Chaplik
10.4%
Polymarket 11.2%(10.4% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joseph Chaplik
Last price
11.2%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Gress
1.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gress
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gina Swoboda
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gina Swoboda
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Reevs
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Reevs
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jason Duey
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jason Duey
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Todd Graham
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Graham
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon Sowers
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Sowers
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Derrick Gallego
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derrick Gallego
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kari Lake
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kari Lake
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kaitlin Purrington
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kaitlin Purrington
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jay Feely
  • John Trobough
  • Joseph Chaplik

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner". Jay Feely last traded at 71.3%. Next is John Trobough at 12.6%. $427K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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