The Prediction Markets

Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Margin of Victory

Closed
Feb 12, 2026
Traded
$124K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Feb 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 213 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
BNP 9%+
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5128 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP 9%+
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP 9%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5128 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP 6–9%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP 9%+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5128 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP 3–6%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP 9%+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5128 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP <3%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • BNP 9%+
  • BNP 9%+
  • BNP 9%+

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Margin of Victory". BNP 9%+ last traded at 99.9%. Next is BNP 9%+ at 0.1%. $124K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Feb 12, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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