The Prediction Markets

Bank of Thailand rate decision in December

Closes
Dec 23, 2026, in 48 days
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Maintain current rate 79%

Next is No change at 50.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Maintain current rate
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
No change
50.9%
Polymarket 62%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps increase
32.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 53.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike 1-25bps
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps increase
5%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut 1-25bps
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cut more than 25bps
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps decrease
2.9%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike more than 25bps
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
25 bps decrease
1.3%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: banrep.gov.co, bcentral.cl
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bank of Thailand, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Maintain current rate
  • No change
  • 25 bps increase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Maintain current rate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Thailand rate decision in December". Maintain current rate leads at 79%. Next is No change at 50.9%. $56K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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