The Prediction Markets

Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Method of Victory

Starts in 2 daysKickoff
Traded
$61K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ 74%

Next is Ends before Round 3? at 74%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Kalshi
Ends before Round 3?
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hasan in Round 1
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hasan in Round 1
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hasan in Round 2
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hasan in Round 2
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 16 more outcomes
Decision or Draw
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gurule in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gurule in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gurule in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gurule in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gurule in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gurule in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gurule to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gurule to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hasan in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hasan in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bilal Hasan by Decision
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilal Hasan by Decision
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Gurule by KO/TKO/DQ
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Gurule by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilal Hasan by Submission
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilal Hasan by Submission
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Gurule by Decision
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Gurule by Decision
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Gurule by Submission
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Gurule by Submission
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw/No Contest
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/No Contest
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ
  • Ends before Round 3?
  • Fight won by KO/TKO?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Method of Victory". Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO/DQ leads at 74%. Next is Ends before Round 3? at 74%. $61K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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