The Prediction Markets

Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election Winner

Closed
Oct 4, 2026
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
SDA
85.8%
Polymarket 82%(85.8% fair)polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 97.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
SDA
Last price
82%
Fair, margin removed
85.8%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
97.1¢
Sell Yes
66.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
SNSD
4.6%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
SNSD
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
DF
4.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
DF
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
SDS
3.3%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
SDS
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Polymarket
SDP BiH
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
SDP BiH
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Polymarket
HDZ BiH
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
HDZ BiH
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Polymarket
NiP
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 64 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
NiP
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: izbori.ba

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • SDA
  • SNSD
  • DF

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election Winner". SDA last traded at 85.8%. Next is SNSD at 4.6%. $12K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 4, 2026.

General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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