The Prediction Markets

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

Closed
May 29, 2026
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 29, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.9%–2.2%
36.7%
Polymarket 40%(36.7% fair)polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%–2.2%
Last price
40%
Fair, margin removed
36.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5%–1.8%
34.8%
Polymarket 38%(34.8% fair)polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5%–1.8%
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
34.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.3%–2.6%
16%
Polymarket 17.5%(16% fair)polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 29.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $334 (3.34x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3%–2.6%
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
29.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$334 (3.34x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1%–1.4%
5.5%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1%–1.4%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
2.7%
2.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.7%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.7%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.7%–1.0%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7%–1.0%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.9%–2.2%
  • 1.5%–1.8%
  • 2.3%–2.6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?". 1.9%–2.2% last traded at 36.7%. Next is 1.5%–1.8% at 34.8%. $21K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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