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What the markets expect
Flavio Bolsonaro 99.1%
Next is Marine Le Pen at 48%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Flavio Bolsonaro99.1%99.1%98.5¢ bid, 99.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed99.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Flavio Bolsonaro99.1%Polymarket 99.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Flavio Bolsonaro
99.1%
99.1%
98.5¢ bid, 99.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
99.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Flavio Bolsonaro
99.1%
Polymarket 99.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Flavio Bolsonaro
- Last price
- 99.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 98.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $5K
Marine Le Pen48%Not listed14%10¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marine Le Pen48%Kalshi 88%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marine Le Pen
48%
Not listed
14%
10¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marine Le Pen
48%
Kalshi 88%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Le Pen
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $17K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Le Pen
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $383
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Le Pen
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $3K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon17.3%Not listed29%28¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 52s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Jean-Luc Mélenchon17.3%Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoKalshi 32%polled, 52s agoKalshi 29%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
17.3%
Not listed
29%
28¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
17.3%
Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoKalshi 32%polled, 52s agoKalshi 29%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $488
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $1K
douard Philippe11.8%Not listed25%18¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)douard Philippe11.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 20%polled, 52s agoKalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
douard Philippe
11.8%
Not listed
25%
18¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
douard Philippe
11.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 20%polled, 52s agoKalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- douard Philippe
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- douard Philippe
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $880
Kalshi
- Contract
- douard Philippe
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $708
Raphaël Glucksmann8%Not listed11%4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Raphaël Glucksmann8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 10%polled, 52s agoKalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Raphaël Glucksmann
8%
Not listed
11%
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Raphaël Glucksmann
8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 10%polled, 52s agoKalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphaël Glucksmann
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphaël Glucksmann
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $10K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphaël Glucksmann
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $3K
David Lisnard6%Not listed12%8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 52s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)David Lisnard6%Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoKalshi 4%polled, 52s agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
David Lisnard
6%
Not listed
12%
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
David Lisnard
6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoKalshi 4%polled, 52s agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Lisnard
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $7K
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Lisnard
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Lisnard
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $5K
Gabriel Attal4%Not listed4%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Gabriel Attal4%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 6%polled, 52s agoKalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gabriel Attal
4%
Not listed
4%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gabriel Attal
4%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 6%polled, 52s agoKalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Attal
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Attal
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Attal
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $508
François Hollande1.8%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)François Hollande1.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
François Hollande
1.8%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
François Hollande
1.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Hollande
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Hollande
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $383
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Hollande
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $508
Jordan Bardella1.7%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jordan Bardella1.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jordan Bardella
1.7%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jordan Bardella
1.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jordan Bardella
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jordan Bardella
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $716
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jordan Bardella
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $508
Bruno Retailleau1.6%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bruno Retailleau1.6%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bruno Retailleau
1.6%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bruno Retailleau
1.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bruno Retailleau
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bruno Retailleau
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bruno Retailleau
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $508
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Xavier Bertrand1.3%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Xavier Bertrand1.3%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Xavier Bertrand
1.3%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Xavier Bertrand
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xavier Bertrand
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xavier Bertrand
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xavier Bertrand
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $454
Dominique de Villepin1.3%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Dominique de Villepin1.3%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dominique de Villepin
1.3%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dominique de Villepin
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dominique de Villepin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dominique de Villepin
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $383
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dominique de Villepin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $454
François Ruffin1.3%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)François Ruffin1.3%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
François Ruffin
1.3%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
François Ruffin
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Ruffin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Ruffin
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- François Ruffin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $454
Marine Tondelier1.3%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marine Tondelier1.3%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marine Tondelier
1.3%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marine Tondelier
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Tondelier
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Tondelier
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $716
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marine Tondelier
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $454
ric Zemmour1.3%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)ric Zemmour1.3%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
ric Zemmour
1.3%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
ric Zemmour
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ric Zemmour
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- ric Zemmour
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $383
Kalshi
- Contract
- ric Zemmour
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $454
Lula1%1%0.3¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)Lula1%Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Lula
1%
1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Lula
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lula
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Flavio Bolsonaro
- Marine Le Pen
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Flavio Bolsonaro for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo". Flavio Bolsonaro leads at 99.1%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 48%. $117K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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