The Prediction Markets

Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent

Closes
Oct 25, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$81K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 48% 95%

Next is At least 49% at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 48%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 49%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 49%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 51%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 51%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52.5%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52.5%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 53%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 53%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 48%
  • At least 49%
  • At least 50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent". At least 48% leads at 95%. Next is At least 49% at 91%. $81K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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