What are the odds of PB 5-10% in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB 5-10% last traded at 39.4% before the market closed.

What are the odds of PB 10-15% in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB 10-15% last traded at 32.3% before the market closed.

What are the odds of PB 15-20% in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB 15-20% last traded at 12.4% before the market closed.

What are the odds of PB 20%+ in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB 20%+ last traded at 6.6% before the market closed.

What are the odds of GERB-SDS Victory in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

GERB-SDS Victory last traded at 6.4% before the market closed.

What are the odds of PB <5% in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB <5% last traded at 2.9% before the market closed.

Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory

Q: What are the odds of PB <5% in Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory?

PB <5% last traded at 2.9% before the market closed.

Closed: Apr 19, 2026
Traded: $26K
Venues: Polymarket

This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Fair chance

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

PB 5-10%

39.4%

41.5%

39.4% fair

37¢ bid, 46¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

46¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $217 (2.17x)

PB 5-10%

39.4%

Polymarket 41.5%(39.4% fair)polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)

Polymarket

Contract: PB 5-10%
Last price: 41.5%
Fair, margin removed: 39.4%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 46¢
Sell Yes: 37¢
$100 on Yes pays: $217 (2.17x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

PB 10-15%

32.3%

34%

32.3% fair

31¢ bid, 37¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

37¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $270 (2.70x)

PB 10-15%

32.3%

Polymarket 34%(32.3% fair)polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)

Polymarket

Contract: PB 10-15%
Last price: 34%
Fair, margin removed: 32.3%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 37¢
Sell Yes: 31¢
$100 on Yes pays: $270 (2.70x)
Volume: $10K

Trade this on Polymarket

PB 15-20%

12.4%

13%

12.4% fair

11¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

15¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $667 (6.67x)

PB 15-20%

12.4%

Polymarket 13%(12.4% fair)polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)

Polymarket

Contract: PB 15-20%
Last price: 13%
Fair, margin removed: 12.4%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 11¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Polymarket

PB 20%+

6.6%

6.9%

3.9¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

9.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

PB 20%+

6.6%

Polymarket 6.9%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: PB 20%+
Last price: 6.9%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $314

Trade this on Polymarket

GERB-SDS Victory

6.4%

6.8%

2.7¢ bid, 10.8¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

10.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $926 (9.26x)

GERB-SDS Victory

6.4%

Polymarket 6.8%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)

Polymarket

Contract: GERB-SDS Victory
Last price: 6.8%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 10.8¢
Sell Yes: 2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $926 (9.26x)
Volume: $74

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PB <5%

2.9%

3.1%

3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask

polled, 4710 h ago

3.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)

PB <5%

2.9%

Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4710 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: PB <5%
Last price: 3.1%
As of: Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes: 3.1¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,226 (32.3x)
Volume: $180

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

PB 5-10%
PB 10-15%
PB 15-20%

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory". PB 5-10% last traded at 39.4%. Next is PB 10-15% at 32.3%. $26K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 19, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

About this market

Questions

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