The Prediction Markets

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$80K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Andrey Gyurov 73.3%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 29%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Andrey GyurovArb
73.3%
Polymarket 96.1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 98%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
96.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 94.4¢ nets 9240 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
douard Philippe
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Kostadin KostadinovArb
24.8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoKalshi 90%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 89¢ nets 8420 bps before fees.

Marine Le Pen
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
David Lisnard
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphaël Glucksmann
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gabriel Attal
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
François Hollande
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Bardella
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 24 more outcomes
Ivan Hristanov
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivan Hristanov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivan Hristanov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Retailleau
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Iliana Yotova
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivaylo Simeonov
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivaylo Simeonov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivaylo Simeonov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivelin Mihaylov
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivelin Mihaylov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivelin Mihaylov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Radostin Vasilev
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Radostin Vasilev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Radostin Vasilev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikolay Nenchev
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolay Nenchev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolay Nenchev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Dominique de Villepin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
François Ruffin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Marine Tondelier
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
ric Zemmour
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavier Bertrand
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikolai Denkov
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Iliana Iotova
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Kiselova
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Polymarket
Atanas Atanasov
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
Blagomir Kotsev
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Krum Zarkov
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
Vassil Terziev
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Zhelyazkov
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket
Yanaki Stoilov
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Polymarket
Boyko Borissov
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Andrey Gyurov on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 94.4¢ (9240 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Bulgaria, Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andrey Gyurov
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • douard Philippe

Live prices for Andrey Gyurov

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place". Andrey Gyurov leads at 73.3%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 29%. $80K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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