The Prediction Markets

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round Winner

Starts in 2 daysKickoff
Traded
$90K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Iliana Iotova 96.9%

Next is Andrey Gyurov at 48.4%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Iliana Iotova
96.9%
Polymarket 96.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.5¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrey GyurovArb
48.4%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 93¢ nets 8810 bps before fees.

Kostadin KostadinovArb
24%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 85¢ nets 8490 bps before fees.

First-round winner
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivan Hristanov
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivan Hristanov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivan Hristanov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Iliana Yotova
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivaylo Simeonov
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivaylo Simeonov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivaylo Simeonov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivelin Mihaylov
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivelin Mihaylov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Ivelin Mihaylov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Radostin Vasilev
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Radostin Vasilev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Radostin Vasilev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikolay Nenchev
1.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolay Nenchev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolay Nenchev
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Vassil Terziev
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Atanas Atanasov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Blagomir Kotsev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Boyko Borissov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Krum Zarkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Kiselova
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolai Denkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Zhelyazkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
Yanaki Stoilov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Andrey Gyurov on Polymarket at 4.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 93¢ (8810 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cik.bg
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Bulgaria, Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iliana Iotova
  • Andrey Gyurov
  • Kostadin Kostadinov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Iliana Iotova for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round Winner". Iliana Iotova leads at 96.9%. Next is Andrey Gyurov at 48.4%. $90K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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