The Prediction Markets

Burnie Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Teeny Brumby 33.1%

Next is Giovanna Simpson at 31%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Teeny Brumby 33.1%Giovanna Simpson 31%Geoffrey Summers 18.2%Chris Lynch 14.2%Ken Dorsey 3.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Teeny Brumby
33.1%
Polymarket 31.5%(33.1% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teeny Brumby
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
33.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giovanna Simpson
31%
Polymarket 29.5%(31% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giovanna Simpson
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Geoffrey Summers
18.2%
Polymarket 17.4%(18.2% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Geoffrey Summers
Last price
17.4%
Fair, margin removed
18.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
11.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Lynch
14.2%
Polymarket 13.5%(14.2% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Lynch
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Dorsey
3.5%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ken Dorsey
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Teeny Brumby
  • Giovanna Simpson
  • Geoffrey Summers

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Burnie Mayoral Election Winner". Teeny Brumby leads at 33.1%. Next is Giovanna Simpson at 31%. $11K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Burnie as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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