The Prediction Markets

California Governor Primary Election: First Place

Closed
Jun 2, 2026
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 2, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Xavier Becerra
43.1%
Polymarket 47%(43.1% fair)polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Becerra
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
43.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Steyer
22.5%
Polymarket 24.5%(22.5% fair)polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Steyer
Last price
24.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Hilton
20.7%
Polymarket 22.5%(20.6% fair)polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Hilton
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chad Bianco
2.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chad Bianco
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elaine Culotti
2.6%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elaine Culotti
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Mahan
2.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Mahan
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Porter
2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Porter
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicki Minaj
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Mercuri
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Mercuri
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket
Raji Rab
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raji Rab
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Derek Grasty
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derek Grasty
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Thunder Parley
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thunder Parley
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Villaraigosa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Villaraigosa
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Yee
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Yee
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Carolina Buhler
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carolina Buhler
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Polymarket
Leo Zacky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leo Zacky
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Polymarket
Ramsey Robinson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ramsey Robinson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Polymarket
Tony Thurmond
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3823 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Thurmond
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xavier Becerra
  • Tom Steyer
  • Steve Hilton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "California Governor Primary Election: First Place". Xavier Becerra last traded at 43.1%. Next is Tom Steyer at 22.5%. $29K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 2, 2026.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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