The Prediction Markets

Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above $2.1 trillion 95%

Next is Above $2.2 trillion at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $2.1 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.1 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.2 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.2 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.3 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.3 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.4 trillion
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.4 trillion
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2 to -0.1%
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2 to -0.1%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.5 trillion
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.5 trillion
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0 to 0.1%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0 to 0.1%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Polymarket
0.2 to 0.3%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2 to 0.3%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Polymarket
0.2%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
0.4 to 0.5%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4 to 0.5%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Above $2.6 trillion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.6 trillion
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6%+
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.7 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.7 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.8 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.8 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.1 trillion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.1 trillion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.2 trillion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.2 trillion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.9 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.9 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.0 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.0 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: www150.statcan.gc.ca
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $2.1 trillion
  • Above $2.2 trillion
  • Above $2.3 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $2.1 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)". Above $2.1 trillion leads at 95%. Next is Above $2.2 trillion at 95%. $9K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending September 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for September 2026, scheduled for release on November 30, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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