The Prediction Markets

Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner

Closed
Mar 29, 2026
Traded
$133K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 29, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 208 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Avi Lewis
99.8%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5002 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Avi Lewis
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bianca Mugyenyi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5002 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bianca Mugyenyi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Heather McPherson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5002 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Heather McPherson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rob Ashton
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5002 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rob Ashton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tanille Johnson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5002 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tanille Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tony McQuail
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5002 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony McQuail
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 208 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Avi Lewis
  • Bianca Mugyenyi
  • Heather McPherson

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner". Avi Lewis last traded at 99.8%. Next is Bianca Mugyenyi at 0.1%. $133K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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