The Prediction Markets

Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027

Closes
Aug 26, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 220000 98%

Next is Above 240000 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 220000
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220000
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240000
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240000
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 245000
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 245000
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250000
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250000
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 255000
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 255000
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260000
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260000
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 265000
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 265000
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270000
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270000
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275000
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275000
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 220000
  • Above 240000
  • Above 245000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027". Above 220000 leads at 98%. Next is Above 240000 at 96%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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