The Prediction Markets

Castilla y Leon Regional Election Winner

Closed
Mar 15, 2026
Traded
$453K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 15, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 222 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
PP
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5332 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
PP
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 222 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Polymarket
PSOE
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5332 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
PSOE
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 222 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$133K
Trade this on Polymarket
VOX
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5332 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
VOX
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 222 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • PP
  • PSOE
  • VOX

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Castilla y Leon Regional Election Winner". PP last traded at 99.9%. Next is PSOE at 0.1%. $453K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 15, 2026.

Elections for the autonomous community of Castilla y Leon’s unicameral legislature (Cortes) are scheduled for March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cortes of Castilla y Leon as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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